Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
