Daily Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Statistics

The typical count of everyday homicides monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government statistics. But, security analysts have advised that murder numbers may not signal better national stability.

Notable Drop in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September. This data was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these past months is very notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that last month the lowest number of murders were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an seemingly sharper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key pillars of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, security analysts warned that using homicide numbers to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is notably true considering the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to properly identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was also an issue because it may obscure periods when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Using the daily average makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst said.