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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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