Is the Entertainment Fading? The Fall of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves managed a decrease of 10 goals from open play than at this stage last season.

A key narrative of the EPL this campaign is the decline of scoring in open play and the way clubs are netting increasingly from set-plays instead.

Comparing how goals have been scored to the first 11 games the prior season, we see a drop of 39 scored in open play and 26 more from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 fewer in total.

Considering the broader view, the number of shots sides are producing show an incredible drop of 370 in open play than this time previously.

Even with the significant rise in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen a mere two extra shots created from these situations excluding spot-kicks, showing the proficiency clubs are at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball chances.

Goal Statistics Tell a Story

Over 300 goals scored in 110 matches up to now calculates at 2.74 goals per game, which if it continued for the entire campaign would be the lowest for half a decade, since 2020-21 (2.69).

But just 196 scores coming in open play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the least for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).

2009-10 is also the only Premier League season to experience scoring at a higher rate from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).

Which Teams Bear the Most Responsibility?

In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the largest decrease, registering only four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than this point the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolves, the EPL's drop in goals from open play is predominantly a London thing, with five of the London's seven clubs scoring at least five goals fewer from open play than last season.

Honestly, this is primarily due to them scoring many scores at the beginning of the previous campaign rather than their genuine struggle to convert in open-play the current term.

At the same time Manchester City have experienced the biggest increase, with nearly all of their 23 goals to date originating in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Comparing clubs that came up with those that were relegated they replaced. Play-off champions Sunderland have scored three more scores in open-play than Southampton did in their opening 11 matches on their way to relegation last season.

Regarding goals scored from set-pieces (aside from penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have seen the largest rise, with each team compensating for the five fewer scores that they've scored in open-play with the same number from set-pieces.

United have scored double the number goals from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games last season prior to their coach took over, while Sunderland again have been better at netting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.

City appear not to have received the memo about netting additional goals from set-plays, because they've netted three fewer than last season, similar to the Reds, although that might be down to the change in style they've attempted to adopt.

General Tendencies

Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Spurs and West Ham – are the current campaign's primary examples by recording fewer scores from open play and additional from set-pieces, while Manchester City stand as the unique club to buck the trend to date by performing the exact opposite.

It will be fascinating to watch if clubs persist to depend greatly on set-plays as matches continue or if they regain their overall inventiveness and begin converting increased totals in open play too.

Matthew Lynn
Matthew Lynn

Urban planner and writer passionate about sustainable city design and community-focused development projects.