Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
